N.B.: This post is a hypothesis about “what happened” in the US presidential election on Tuesday. It deliberately makes no statement about what ought to have happened, nor should it be read searching for hints regarding my political views.
Numbers, like dead men, tell no tales. As late as the afternoon of election day, mainstream media outlets confidently predicted, on the basis of dozens of polls, a relatively easy victory for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. That is not what happened. Many people were surprised, whether positively or negatively, by Trump’s decisive victory over Clinton, and many are trying to figure out why it happened the way it did. Yet the bare numbers, the responses to opinion polls and the voting tallies, are silent about what chain of events led to these results. All explanations of what happened are necessarily speculative, but this post proposes one mechanism. In particular, it explores the possibility that the mainstream media might have unintentionally discouraged people from voting for Clinton. (more…)